Optimize Rural Electrification Technology Choice

• Version 4 (2016)
  • Principal Investigator: Vijay Modi
  • Project Manager: Edwin Adkins
  • Econometric Analyst: Naichen Zhao
  • Spatial Analyst: Shaky Sherpa
  • Software Engineers: Chris Natali, Roy Hyunjin Han, Viktor Roytman
• Version 3 (2013)
  • Principal Investigator: Vijay Modi
  • Project Manager: Edwin Adkins
  • Operations Research Analyst: Ayse Selin Kocaman
  • Econometric Analyst: Jonathan Carbajal
  • Spatial Analyst: Shaky Sherpa
  • Software Engineers: Chris Natali, Brandon Ogle
• Version 2 (2010)
  • Principal Investigator: Vijay Modi
  • Project Managers: Edwin Adkins, Alex Hofmann
  • Project Advisors: Jonah Bossewitch, Rob Garfield
  • Operations Research Analysts: Alex Zvoleff, Ayse Selin Kocaman
  • Econometric Analysts: Sahil Shah, Aly Sanoh
  • Spatial Analyst: Susan Kum
  • Graphic Designers: Andrew Doro, Zarina Mustapha
  • Software Engineers: Roy Hyunjin Han, Po-Han Freeza Huang, Anders Pearson, Ethan Jucovy
• Version 1 (2009)
  • Principal Investigator: Vijay Modi
  • Project Managers: Alex Hofmann, Matt Berg
  • Operations Research Analysts: Alex Zvoleff, Ayse Selin Kocaman
  • Econometric Analysts: Sahil Shah, Aly Sanoh
  • Graphic Designers: Andrew Doro
  • Software Engineers: Roy Hyunjin Han, Po-Han Freeza Huang
• Version 0 (2008)
  • Principal Investigator: Vijay Modi
  • Doctoral Researchers: Lily Parshall, Aly Sanoh
  • Econometric Analyst: Arnaud Algrin
  • Spatial Analyst: Dana Pillai
  • Software Engineer: Shashank Mohan

Each technology has initial installation costs and recurring production, maintenance and replacement costs.

Mini-grid technologies include a central production facility and a low-voltage distribution network.

Finance

The amount of money needed to fund an infrastructure project includes both initial and recurring costs. The initial costs are paid upfront and the recurring costs are paid later.

The net present value or discounted cost of an infrastructure project assumes that you will invest the money that you are not using now. For example, if a $110k project will start next year and if you are confident that you will earn at least 10% through investments, then you can request a loan for $100k one year in advance.

Demography

Assume that population grows at a fixed rate each year. If the population is 100 and the growth rate is 10%, then the population will be 110 after the first year and 121 after the second year.

To override a computed value for specific demand points, upload a CSV with an additional column. The column name should match the name of the variable that you are overriding. Variable names are available in the glossary.csv file that is generated after running this tool.

Note that if you leave a blank entry in a local override column, then the system will not override the value for that demand point.

Geography

The length of line used to connect two locations is often greater than the distance between the two locations.

Consumption

Assume that consumption is fixed per capita. Estimate consumption based on the projected population.

To override connection count and consumption by connection type for specific demand points, please use the following column name format in the Demand Point Table above:

• xyz_connection_count
• xyz_consumption_in_kwh_per_year_per_xyz

For example, the following column names in the Demand Point Table will override household connection count and consumption:

• household_connection_count
• household_consumption_in_kwh_per_year_per_household

By default, household_connection_count is relative to the size of the population for each year. Overriding household_connection_count will result in household_connection_count being constant year over year.

The following column names in the Demand Point Table will override market count and consumption, but only if market exists as a connection type in the Connection Type Table below:

• market_connection_count
• market_consumption_in_kwh_per_year_per_market

Technology: Grid

A remote source produces electricity that is distributed to consumers.

• Recurring Production Cost
  • Assume that we must produce more than what we consume because of distribution losses.
  • Production cost is the loss-adjusted local consumption in kWh multiplied by the electricity production cost per kWh.

Grid Medium Voltage Line

Medium voltage lines carry electricity over large distances.

• Initial Raw Cost is proportional to the number of meters of medium voltage line in the network.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Grid Medium Voltage Transformer

Medium voltage transformers convert medium voltage to low voltage.

• Initial Raw Cost
  • The cost of a transformer depends on its capacity, which is how much electricity it can deliver. Transformer capacity is listed in kVA. If the power factor of the load is 0.85, then the number of kWh delivered is kVA * 0.85.
  • Size transformer capacity based on estimated peak demand. Estimate the amount of loss-adjusted consumption that is happening during peak hours. Divide the loss-adjusted consumption by the number of peak hours per year to estimate peak demand.
  • Find the two transformers that are closest to the desired capacity.
  • Compute the raw cost per unit capacity for each of the two selected transformers.
  • Interpolate the raw cost per unit capacity relative to the desired capacity.
  • Multiply the raw cost per unit capacity by the desired capacity.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Grid Low Voltage Line

Low voltage lines distribute electricity over small distances.

• Initial Raw Cost
  • Multiply the raw cost of low voltage line per meter by the estimated number of meters of low voltage line.
  • The number of meters of LV line is the number of connections multiplied by the average distance between buildings.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Grid Low Voltage Connection

The low voltage connection connects a building to low voltage line.

• Initial Raw Cost is proportional to the estimated number of connections.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Technology: Diesel Mini Grid

A local diesel generator produces electricity that is distributed to consumers.

• Recurring Production Cost is the cost of fuel consumed. Multiply the fuel cost per liter, the fuel liters consumed per kilowatt-hour, the generator's capacity in kilowatts and its effective hours of production per year. The effective hours of production per year is the larger of either the loss-adjusted consumption per year divided by the system capacity or the minimum hours of production per year.

Diesel Mini Grid Generator

Generators consume fuel to produce electricity.

• Initial Raw Cost
  • Size generator capacity based on estimated peak demand. Estimate the amount of loss-adjusted consumption that is happening during peak hours. Divide the loss-adjusted consumption by the number of peak hours per year to estimate peak demand.
  • Find the two generators that are closest to the desired capacity.
  • Compute the raw cost per unit capacity for each of the two selected generators.
  • Interpolate the raw cost per unit capacity relative to the desired capacity.
  • Multiply the raw cost per unit capacity by the desired capacity.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Diesel Mini Grid Low Voltage Line

The cost model is identical to grid low voltage line.

Diesel Mini Grid Low Voltage Connection

The cost model is identical to grid low voltage connection.

Technology: Solar Home

A photovoltaic system produces electricity from sunlight for each building.

Solar Home Panel

The photovoltaic panel converts sunlight into electricity.

• Initial Raw Cost
  • Size panel capacity based on consumption. Since we have a battery, we do not need to consider peak demand and can use consumption directly.
  • Adjust consumption to account for system efficiency loss. Divide the loss adjusted consumption by the number of peak hours of sun per year to get desired panel capacity.
  • Find the two panels that are closest to the desired capacity.
  • Compute the raw cost per unit capacity for each of the two selected panels.
  • Interpolate the raw cost per unit capacity relative to the desired capacity.
  • Multiply the raw cost per unit capacity by the desired capacity.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Solar Home Battery

Battery costs are proportional to panel costs.

Solar Home Balance

Balance costs are proportional to panel costs.

Technology: Solar Mini Grid

A photovoltaic system produces electricity that is distributed to consumers.

Solar Mini Grid Panel

The photovoltaic panel converts sunlight into electricity.

• Initial Raw Cost
  • Size panel capacity based on consumption. Since we have a battery, we do not need to consider peak demand and can use consumption directly.
  • Adjust consumption to account for system efficiency loss. Divide the loss adjusted consumption by the number of peak hours of sun per year to get desired panel capacity.
  • Find the two panels that are closest to the desired capacity.
  • Compute the raw cost per unit capacity for each of the two selected panels.
  • Interpolate the raw cost per unit capacity relative to the desired capacity.
  • Multiply the raw cost per unit capacity by the desired capacity.
• Initial Installation Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Maintenance Cost is proportional to the Raw Cost.
• Recurring Replacement Cost is the Initial Cost divided by lifetime.

Solar Mini Grid Battery

Battery costs are proportional to panel costs.

Solar Mini Grid Balance

Balance costs are proportional to panel costs.

Solar Mini Grid Low Voltage Line

The cost model is identical to grid low voltage line.

Solar Mini Grid Low Voltage Connection

The cost model is identical to grid low voltage connection.